Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is the early Best Picture frontrunner for the 99th Academy Awards, according to Rotten Tomatoes’ first nomination predictions, published October 16. The ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 14, 2027, per Covers.
The Best Picture Field
Rotten Tomatoes says Project Hail Mary, the final Dune film, Cannes favorite La Bola Negra and The Odyssey are most likely to lead nominations. Its ten Best Picture picks also include Obsession, Possible Love, The Invite, The Debut, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth and Wild Horse Nine. Tom Cruise’s Digger is listed as a possible spoiler after a mixed critical response.
Ten is the number of Best Picture nominees the Academy currently names, so a full list of predictions fills every slot. The mix is broad. It includes large studio productions such as Dune: Part Three and The Odyssey, a film adapted from a popular novel in Project Hail Mary, and smaller titles like The Debut, which marks a directing effort from Jesse Eisenberg. That range shows how open the early race is, with commercial and independent films both represented. The listing of Digger as a possible spoiler shows how a high-profile name does not guarantee a place in the final list when reviews are divided.
Directors and Performers
Nolan is picked to win Best Director, with Martin McDonagh, Denis Villeneuve, Jesse Eisenberg and Phil Lord and Chris Miller rounding out the predicted nominees. In acting, Rotten Tomatoes lists Julianne Moore (The Debut), Paul Giamatti (The Debut), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) and Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) as consensus picks. Best Actor nominees predicted are Matt Damon, Malkovich, Brad Pitt, Ryan Gosling and John Turturro.
Several details stand out in those lists. Nolan won his first Oscars for Oppenheimer, so a prediction that places him in the winner’s position again carries the weight of recent history. Villeneuve’s inclusion connects to the final Dune film, and the duo of Lord and Miller connects to Project Hail Mary. Two of the acting picks, Moore and Giamatti, come from the same film, which suggests that early forecasters see The Debut as a strong showcase for performers. Malkovich is named both among the consensus acting picks and among the predicted Best Actor nominees, which shows how early and fluid the forecasting still is in October.
The Leading Contenders in Brief
The Odyssey adapts Homer’s ancient epic about a warrior’s long journey home, a story that has inspired countless retellings. Dune: Part Three concludes Villeneuve’s adaptation of Frank Herbert’s novel, following earlier films in the series. Project Hail Mary is based on a novel by Andy Weir, directed by Lord and Miller. La Bola Negra is described by Rotten Tomatoes as a Cannes favorite. Each film brings a different source and a different route to awards attention, which helps explain why no single title has locked up the race.
What the Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets agree on the frontrunner. Covers shows The Odyssey at 49 percent on Kalshi for Best Picture, ahead of La Bola Negra at 27 percent and Dune: Part Three at 10 percent. Rotten Tomatoes cautions that October picks often miss, noting that early consensus favorites such as Demi Moore and Timothée Chalamet did not win last season.
The market percentages show a clear lead for The Odyssey, with nearly half the implied probability, though that still leaves more than half spread among other films. Added together, the first three titles account for 86 percent, which indicates that traders see the race as largely a contest among a handful of films. These figures reflect market sentiment at a single point in time and are not a measure of quality or a guarantee of any outcome.
Why October Predictions Miss
The caution from Rotten Tomatoes is worth taking seriously. Many of the year’s major releases have not yet been seen by voters, festival reactions can change the picture quickly, and campaigns by studios can shift attention between titles. Last season’s examples of Moore and Chalamet are a reminder that being the leading name in autumn does not secure a win in March.
The Calendar Ahead
The ceremony is set for March 14, 2027, and the subtitle of this article notes that nominations come in January. Between now and then, the awards conversation will be shaped by remaining releases, critics’ groups, guild announcements and the studios’ campaigns. The sources cited here do not give exact dates for those events, so readers should treat the October lists as a starting point and expect them to change as the season advances.
For readers following the race, the most useful approach is to watch how the lists evolve. Titles that gain momentum through festival screenings, critics’ honors and guild recognition tend to rise, while those that fade from conversation usually slip down the predictions. As the lists are updated, comparing them with this early snapshot will show which films have strengthened their position and which have lost ground since October.