Tom Cruise's Digger Now Stands to Lose $245 Million After 60% Second-Weekend Drop

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October 11, 2026

Updated October 28, 2026

Variety reports that projected losses have climbed well past the $150 million to $200 million range estimated after the film's opening.

Tom Cruise's Digger is now tracking to lose $245 million over its theatrical run, according to Variety, which cites knowledgeable sources. The estimate comes after the film dropped 60% in its second weekend, and it is up from the $150 million to $200 million loss that was projected after its opening. Our earlier report on its opening weekend has more on the first numbers.

Tom Cruise's Digger Now Stands to Lose $245 Million After 60% Second-Weekend Drop
Image: The Movie Database (TMDB)

A Steep Slide Over the Second Weekend

Before the final figures were in, TheWrap's Friday estimates pointed to about $3 million for the weekend, a drop of roughly 60% from the $8 million opening, which would lift the ten-day domestic total to about $14 million. The film, directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, opened in 3,321 theaters on October 2 and had earned about $9.9 million through its first five days. TheWrap described the run as a likely box office bomb. Weekend numbers published on Friday are early estimates, and final figures arrive on Monday.

A 60% decline is not unusual in itself. Many wide releases lose half or more of their audience in the second frame, particularly when the first weekend is driven by the most committed fans. What makes the figure damaging here is the starting point. When a film opens to $8 million across more than 3,300 screens, a steep second-weekend fall leaves very little revenue to build on, and each additional week brings smaller returns than the one before.

The Numbers at a Glance

Digger opened to $8 million domestically and about $20 million worldwide. After its second weekend, it has earned $14.4 million domestically and $35.3 million worldwide, according to Comic Basics. Variety expects it to finish with roughly $50 million globally. Laid side by side with the film's costs, the reported figures look like this:

Where a $245 Million Loss Comes From

The film cost an estimated $173 million to make and another $100 million to market, all financed by Warner Bros., according to TheWrap. Together, that puts the studio's outlay at roughly $273 million before a single ticket is counted. Sources put the worldwide break-even point at about $350 million, though a studio spokesperson says it is around $300 million. Executives at Warner Bros.' new parent company, Skydance, told TheWrap that the loss could reach $250 million. You can read about the deal that created that company in our report on the merger.

The loss is far larger than the gap between the budget and the box office might suggest, and the reason is how ticket revenue is divided. A studio does not keep the full amount a film grosses. Theaters retain a substantial portion of every ticket sold, and the share that returns to the distributor is typically smaller in some overseas markets than at home. That is why break-even targets sit well above a film's combined production and marketing costs. A picture that finishes near $50 million globally returns only a fraction of that figure to the studio, which leaves a very large hole against a $273 million investment.

Leadership Exits on Opening Day

The timing of the film's release has added a layer of corporate drama. Warner Bros. co-chiefs Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy left the company on the Friday Digger opened. That put the studio's most expensive recent bet into theaters just as the executives overseeing its slate departed, and it left the new ownership group to manage the fallout from a project it did not greenlight.

That context helps explain why Skydance executives were willing to speak about the potential size of the loss. When a studio changes hands, the first major releases under the new structure are watched closely, both internally and by the industry. A loss approaching a quarter of a billion dollars is likely to inform how the combined company thinks about big-budget, star-driven originals in the months ahead.

A Prestige Campaign in Doubt

Variety adds that a film with a major star and an acclaimed director would normally command an Oscar campaign of around $15 million, but that spending could be scaled back given the film's reception. Awards campaigns are an established way for studios to extend a film's visibility and lend it prestige, yet they add to the total cost of a release rather than offsetting it. Spending heavily on a campaign for a film that has already lost most of its commercial momentum is a difficult case to make, and the decision will say a good deal about how Warner Bros. views the film's standing with voters.

Iñárritu arrives with a strong awards pedigree, having won Academy Awards for Birdman and The Revenant, and Cruise has long been among the industry's most reliable theatrical draws. Neither fact has translated into ticket sales this time, which is part of what makes the film's performance such a notable story.

Defenders Speak Up as Receipts Fall

The film remains a talking point for critics and fans even as the numbers fall. Hollywood figures including Anne Hathaway and Guillermo del Toro have publicly defended it. Their support reflects a familiar pattern in which a film's reputation among filmmakers and its reception at the box office move in different directions, and the question of which verdict lasts longer is one the industry has revisited many times.

For a different perspective, you can read our opinion piece on Digger, and for the latest on the film's run, see our report that Digger is being pulled from theaters.

What Happens Next

With the film expected to end its run around $50 million worldwide, attention is shifting from whether it can recover to how much of the damage can be contained. Later revenue from digital rental and purchase, home video and streaming licensing can add to a film's total, but it rarely closes a gap of this size. The reported $245 million projection already assumes a modest finish, and any further decline in theater counts would pull the final figure lower still.

For Warner Bros., the larger question is strategic. The studio has now released a film with a top-tier star, an Oscar-winning director and a nine-figure budget that audiences largely passed over, and it did so while its leadership was changing and its ownership was being restructured. How that experience shapes future greenlights, marketing budgets and awards spending will become clearer as the new management settles in. Final box office totals for Digger will be confirmed once its theatrical run concludes.

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